https://doi.org/10.21670/ref.2207091

Foreign trade and employment in the northern border of Mexico

Comercio exterior y empleo en la frontera norte de México

Jorge Eduardo Mendoza^{a *} https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9555-9581
Víctor Hugo Torres-Preciado^b https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0501-0913

^a El Colegio de la Frontera Norte, Departamento de Estudios Económicos, San Antonio del Mar, Mexico, e-mail: emendoza@colef.mx

^b Universidad de Colima, Facultad de Economía, Colima, Mexico, e-mail: torrespreciado@ucol.mx

^* Corresponding author: Jorge Eduardo Mendoza. E-mail: emendoza@colef.mx

Received on September 27, 2021.
Accepted on January 28, 2022.
Published on April 29, 2022.

Abstract:
The paper investigates the impact of the international trade on employment of the northern border states of Mexico and its integration with the economy of the United States during 2007-2020. In order to analyze the effect of commercial penetration on the evolution of employment in the region, a dynamic panel model is used to estimate the effect of exports and imports. The results indicate that at the level of total exports there is no clear correlation of the penetration of exports on employment in the region. In contrast, the penetration of manufacturing exports and imports showed a positive and statistically significant effect on manufacturing employment in the northern border region of Mexico. The coefficient of average manufacturing wages showed an inverse coefficient suggesting that the employment dynamics are limiting the growth of wage income.
Keywords: Northern border of Mexico, exports, imports, employment.

Resumen:
El trabajo investiga los impactos del comercio exterior sobre el empleo en los estados de la frontera norte de México y su integración con la economía de los Estados Unidos durante 2007-2020. Con el objetivo de analizar el efecto de la penetración comercial en la evolución del empleo en la región se utiliza un modelo de panel dinámico. Los resultados indican que la penetración de las exportaciones totales no muestra una clara correlación con la dinámica del empleo en la región. Por su parte, la penetración de las exportaciones y de las importaciones manufactureras muestra un efecto positivo y estadísticamente significativo en el empleo manufacturero en la región de la frontera norte de México. El coeficiente de los salarios promedio manufactureros expresa un coeficiente inverso, lo que sugiere que la dinámica de empleo es una limitante del crecimiento de los ingresos salariales.
Palabras clave: frontera norte de México, exportaciones, importaciones, empleo.

Original article language: Spanish.

Introduction

The classical theory of international trade argues that international trade impacts employment. On the one hand, workers who are employed in industries that compete through imports experience losses with trade openness, on the other hand, employment increases in export industries. However, the effects of trade openness are more complex because they generate varied impacts depending on the type of economic activity and the level of development of countries or regions (Crozet & Orefice 2017).

The classic Heckscher-Ohlin model predicts that countries with a relative abundance of labor export goods that require intensive labor. From this perspective, a developing economy, such as Mexico, would be driven to produce labor-intensive goods for export, as is the case for the export maquiladora industry. Therefore, under this logic, the expansion of trade in this sector would generate greater demand for labor in the labor market, thus increasing total employment, in particular, in the states that concentrate this type of manufacturing activity.

In contrast, the new theory of international trade, which analyses the growing importance of intra-industrial trade, considers the possibility that labor-intensive economies increase their demand for capital, which increases the demand for imports and improves employment conditions (Feenstra & Hanson, 1997). In this way, the differentiation of output and economies of scale determine the expansion of intra-industry trade, which modifies the composition of employment through manufacturing industries (Jenkins & Sen 2006).

Several studies have conducted empirical tests of the relationship between exports and employment. Artuc et al. (2019) analysed the effect of changes in the trade exposure index on jobs, wages and labor informality in various South Asian countries for the 1999-2011 period. The econometric estimates of ordinary least squares indicated that there was no positive impact on total direct employment, but there was a reduction in informal employment and growth in formal employment. Kiyota (2016) used an input-output matrix and found that in the 1995-2009 period, exports, predominantly manufacturing, had an effect on employment in the economies of China, Indonesia, Japan and Korea. In particular, the effect on the manufacturing of machinery, electrical equipment and transportation was highlighted, translating into greater employment of workers in nonmanufacturing activities.

In the United States (USA), Feenstra et al. (2019) estimated the impact of industrial exports by sector for the 1991-2011 period using econometric forecasts and a Leontief matrix to study the impact of exports on employment. Their results indicate that manufacturing exports generated approximately 300 000 jobs that compensated for job losses resulting from imports from China. In relation to the analysis of the link between exports and the labor market in Mexico, Varela Llamas and Retamoza Yocupicio (2020) studied the 2005-2019 period using an autoregressive distributed lag model, finding that exports have a positive effect on the growth of industrial activity and formal employment.

It has been argued that the effects of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on the Mexican economy have been positive but moderate. The benefits have focused on the manufacturing sector in terms of the adaptation of technology imported from the USA, a higher employment rate, greater macroeconomic stability and the synchronization of the growth cycle of the economies of Mexico and the USA. However, disparities in income and occupation remain at the regional level (Villarreal & Fergusson, 2017). Likewise, since the establishment of NAFTA, there has been a notable increase in employment in the manufacturing sector in Mexico. In the first 10 years of the Agreement, approximately one million jobs were created; however, this figure did not have a significant impact on the total employment dynamics in the Mexican economy (Blecker, 2014). As a complement to the growth of manufacturing exports, manufacturing imports also exhibited very dynamic growth, which was concentrated in the import of inputs for export manufacturing production.

Trade openness and foreign investment intensified the existing regional advantages on the northern border; this openness and investment are driven by geographic proximity and local economic interactions, significantly boosting trade integration and manufacturing activity. Since 1997 to 2000, the exports of northern border states have increased their share in the national GDP, reflecting the impact of the economic integration of the United States and Mexico on bilateral trade (Mendoza, 2005).

The export manufacturing industry has become a fundamental sector of the economy of the northern border region, both for its weight in total exports and for its contribution to the generation of labor. However, the employment growth rate has not been as dynamic relative to the overall economic activity of the country (Tavares Luna & Varela Llamas, 2019). In this regard, it has been argued that the growth of the manufacturing sector in Mexico has not been a decisive factor in increasing formal employment because the relative importance of this sector in the total economic activity is lower than that of the service sector (Almonte et al., 2020). However, some studies have found, based on input-output matrices, that manufacturing exports have a positive impact on production and employment (Ruiz Napoles, 2017).

Manufacturing activities in which high levels of foreign direct investment (FDI) are concentrated show significant growth in employment for both skilled and unskilled workers (Saucedo et al., 2020). Regionally, the economies of the border states of Mexico and the USA, particularly those of border states such as California and Texas, have experienced an increase in trade integration. This has led to employment trends in the northern Mexican border region showing greater synchronization with employment trends in the United States (Mendoza, 2009). Thus, the growth of employment in the northern border region of Mexico has been concentrated in the service, manufacturing and trade sectors (Grijalva Monteverde, 2004). In particular, the states on the northern border of Mexico have had sustained growth in manufacturing jobs derived from their proximity to the United States and the boost from NAFTA. Employment concentrated in the transportation and electronics industries stand out (Angoa et al., 2009).

The northern Mexican border region is characterized by a greater share of manufacturing production and exports compared to the national average in Mexico and by growth and a significant proportion of manufacturing employment among total employment in the region. For this reason, it is important to estimate the extent to which foreign trade is a determining factor in employment in this border region of Mexico. To address this objective, this paper is structured as follows. The next section describes and analyses the evolution of employment and foreign trade in the northern border region. Then, the theoretical perspective and methodological strategy to estimate the relationship between foreign trade and employment are presented, the results of the estimates are discussed, and finally, the conclusions of the study are presented.

Evolution of trade and employment on the northern border of Mexico

The economic integration of the states on the northern Mexican border with the United States economy accelerated as a result of the boost of NAFTA on foreign direct investment and international trade (Mendoza, 2005). Likewise, a new agreement between the United States, Mexico and Canada (T-MEC) has established guidelines that can continue to promote the growth of jobs associated, particularly, with manufacturing economic activity. The expansion of total employment in the region of the northern border states of Mexico has been greater than the growth seen by the country as a whole. Thus, between 2005 and 2020, the average annual growth rate of the employed population of the border region was 1.9%, while for the entire country, this rate was lower, reaching only 1.4% (Figure 1).

In addition, for the manufacturing sector, the difference between growth rates is even greater in the border region. The average annual growth rate in the same period for the secondary sector nationally was 1.5%, and the growth rate for the northern border states was 2.1% (Figure 1). Employment patterns along the northern border suggest the existence of factors that have had a greater impact in that region than in the rest of the country. Furthermore, when analysing the growth rates of the total employed population and the secondary sector at the national level and in the border region, each of the border states saw a total growth rate and manufacturing sector growth rate that were higher than the national level for the reference period. In particular, the cases of the states of Baja California, Chihuahua and Sonora stand out.

Source: own elaboration with data on employment, unemployment and underemployment rates, the monthly results of the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, for the Population Aged 15 Years and Older (Economic Information Bank of the National Institute of Statistics and Geography, 2021)

Figure 1. Growth rates of total employment and of the national manufacturing sector and in the northern border states, 2005-2020

Source: own elaboration with data on employment, unemployment and underemployment rates, the monthly results of the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, for the Population Aged 15 Years and Older (Economic Information Bank of the National Institute of Statistics and Geography, 2021)

In addition, the creation of manufacturing jobs has varied within the region. Some states have consolidated their capacity to create new jobs, while others have decreased it, indicating the relative importance of job creation in the region. For example, Chihuahua, which for several years has been established as the main manufacturing job centre along the northern border of Mexico, has increased its contribution to the creation of manufacturing jobs in the region, with an average quarterly variation of 2.4% during the 2013-2020 period (Table 1). Similarly, Baja California has shown a rapid employment growth rate of 2.5%. Additionally, Coahuila and Sonora, although they have experienced sustained growth in the number of manufacturing jobs, both seem to face difficulties in recovering growth dynamics as of 2018, when the region faced a reduction in the rate of growth of this type of employment.

Regarding the evolution of exports, the northern border region generates a large percentage of total exports from Mexico. The proportion of the total has remained relatively constant from 2007 to 2020, representing 64.6% in 2007, with a slight reduction in its share in 2020 to 60.7% (Table 2). The growth of manufacturing exports both nationally and in the northern border region of Mexico has increased rapidly, reaching an average annual rate of 5.3% for the national manufacturing sector and 4.6% for the northern border in the 2007-2019 period. Therefore, although in recent years the importance of exports from the border region has decreased slightly, it is still considered a determining factor for all exports from Mexico and has a great impact on economic activities along the northern border.

Export dynamics for the northern border region states of Mexico have exhibited differentiated behaviour. Within the northern border region, Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo León and Baja California account for the highest proportion of the region’s manufacturing exports (Table 3). Likewise, these states exhibited the highest growth rates in the period and greatly exceeded the growth rate for the border region as a whole. The high share of manufacturing exports linked to the predominance of manufacturing jobs in the region suggests the possibility that manufacturing trade has driven total employment in the border region.

With regard to imports of the states along the northern border of Mexico, as in the country as a whole, the manufacturing sector plays a predominant role in total imports. Notably, manufacturing imports from the U.S., through means of transportation, reached an average annual growth of 4.1% in Mexico, while in the northern border region, the average annual growth rate was 4.7% (Table 4). To a large extent, the greatest dynamism of import growth is related to intra-industrial trade, carried out by the maquiladora and export manufacturing industries, within the framework of the growing development of global supply chains.

In particular, the largest volumes of imports are located in Chihuahua, Nuevo León and Baja California. In addition, the first two states presented average annual growth rates higher than the national average and the northern border region average. Thus, Chihuahua had an average growth rate in the period of 6.3%, with that for Nuevo León being 6.2%; for the northern border region, it was 4.1%, and nationally, it was 5.3%. The greater relative growth of imports and exports in the northern border states occurred, in part, from the growing trade within the automotive and electronic sectors, which have a significant number of production and export plants located in the northern border region (Mendoza-Cota, 2021). This trend has allowed greater relative trade in the region with the United States, which has impacted economic activity and employment in the region.

The analysis of the proportion of the value of manufacturing exports and imports with respect to the value produced in this same sector in the states of the northern border region suggests that those with a greater penetration of their manufacturing trade into the United States economy would have also experienced a greater sustained increase in the number of manufacturing jobs and were even able to hold onto their relative importance among the region’s total manufacturing employment. In particular, the state of Chihuahua, whose economy produces the highest number of manufacturing jobs among the six border states, saw a gradual increase in the penetration of its manufacturing exports and imports that reached, on average, 72% and 52%, respectively, during the period analysed (Figure 2).

Figure 2. Evolution. of the proportion of manufacturing exports and imports with respect to the value of manufacturing production in the states of the northern border of Mexico, 2013-2020

Source: own elaboration with data on state GDP from national accounts and exports obtained from the series of the external sector of the Economic Information Bank of the National Institute of Statistics and Geography

Baja California, meanwhile, experienced a process of manufacturing trade integration with the US economy that gradually intensified until 2017 and seemed to decrease slightly during 2018 and 2019, in accordance with the trends for state manufacturing jobs (Figure 3). The penetration of manufacturing trade, in this case, reached an average of 44% for exports with respect to the value of production and 21% for imports. The process of trade integration for Tamaulipas’ manufacturing activity, on the other hand, contrasts markedly with that experienced by the set of border states due to the rapid increase in the penetration of their manufacturing exports and imports.

Figure 3. Evolution of the number of manufacturing jobs in the northern border states of Mexico, 2013-2020

Source: own elaboration with data on employment, unemployment and underemployment rates and monthly results of the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, for the Population Aged 15 Years and Older (Economic Information Bank of the National Institute of Statistics and Geography)

In this regard, as seen in Figure 2, the proportion of the value of manufacturing exports with respect to the value of production increased from 13% to 34%, while that for imports increased from 7% to 12%, which corresponds with the increasing trend in manufacturing jobs. The states of Coahuila, Nuevo León and Sonora have processes of trade integration in their manufacturing activities with the US economy that has remained stable over the past 17 years, with a slight increase in the penetration achieved by manufacturing exports and imports in the latter state (Figure 2), which could explain the difficulty that these states found in resuming the growth rate of manufacturing jobs reached in 2018.

Figures 4 and 5, which describe, respectively, the relationship between the penetration of manufacturing exports and imports with respect to employment in this sector clearly indicate, in both cases, that more trade integration favours the creation of manufacturing jobs. This aspect would explain, therefore, why some states such as Chihuahua and Baja California continue to strengthen their trade ties with the US economy as a channel to consolidate their labor markets, particularly those tied to manufacturing activities, and why states such as Tamaulipas are making significant progress in integrating their state economy into the US economy through manufacturing trade. This aspect, however, would imply that the states of Coahuila and Sonora would have to push the creation of location advantages and productive capacities that allow them to compete effectively in the attraction and creation of manufacturing companies while developing the conditions to increase the penetration of their manufacturing trade. With respect to the state of Nuevo León, greater integration of manufacturing activity with the US economy would create additional jobs to those created by the economic activities most integrated into the national economy.

Figure 4. Scatterplot of export penetration and employment in the manufacturing industry of the states of the northern border of Mexico, 2013-2020

Source: own elaboration with data on state GDP from national accounts and exports obtained from the series of the external sector of the Economic Information Bank of the National Institute of Statistics and Geography

Figure 5. Scatterplot of import penetration and employment in the manufacturing industry of the northern border states of Mexico, 2013-2020

Source: own elaboration with state GDP data from national accounts and exports obtained from the series of the external sector of the Economic Information Bank of the National Institute of Statistics and Geography and imports from the US Census Bureau: Economic Indicators Division. USA Trade Online

The review of the evolution of exports and imports and employment in the manufacturing sector of the region of the northern border states of Mexico suggests that the region’s trade with the United States plays a predominant role in the employment dynamics of the region. In this sense, it is relevant to establish an econometric model to carry out estimates to measure the extent to which this activity has impacted the labor market of the northern border region of Mexico.

Theoretical and methodological aspects to evaluate the effect of trade on employment

In general, the theoretical perspective for analysing the impact of international trade on employment in the manufacturing sector is based on the proposition that exports and imports affect the labor input required for production. There are different theoretical approaches that highlight the potential factors that can determine the way in which the growth of international trade impacts employment growth. From Keynesian theory, export growth, as a component of aggregate demand, can stimulate production and, therefore, employment (Villanueva, 2017). However, international trade can also influence employment due to its impact on labor productivity because it can modify the sectoral composition of the economy and guide it towards capital-intensive activities (Gibson, 2011).

The approaches of the classic models of international trade indicate that countries with an abundance of labor will experience an increase in labor-intensive exports. In the case of the Mexican economy, there is an increase in labor-intensive maquiladora exports. According to the Stolper-Samuelson theorem, changes in employment occur through changes in relative prices in international trade, which determine shifts in the demand for employment between industries and generate changes in business productivity. However, it has been stated that the positive impact of trade on employment may be greater in developing countries because many imports are noncompetitive (Wood, 1995).

In addition, intra-industry trade is related to the adjustment of the costs of production factors. Lovely and Nelson (2000, 2002) used a two-sector model to analyse the effects of intra-industry trade. Their results indicate that intra-industry trade generates adjustments at the intersectoral level, which implies long-term changes in the relative prices of the factors. Likewise, the empirical analysis has shown that in some countries, the marginal intra-industrial trade indicator has been associated with adjustments in the labor market, particularly in the short term (Brülhart, 2000). Additionally, Cabral and Silva (2006) estimated a panel model to analyse the relationship between intra-industry trade and labor mobility and suggest that this occurs both between sectors and between occupations.

Intra-industry trade also has implications for the production processes of some manufacturing activities at the international level. For example, the U.S. automotive industry has experienced significant structural changes that have fragmented the production processes of that industry across different countries. This trend has boosted vertical intra-industry trade in the U.S. automotive and auto parts subsectors with its main trading partners (Türkcan & Ates, 2011). In this way, the context of the growing intra-industrial trade in the total world trade and, in particular, of vertical intra-industrial trade (Greenaway et al., 1995), which characterizes a large part of the trade of the states bordering Mexico, allows us to assume that international trade has the potential to increase the demand for labor.

In this way, when assuming an economy without full employment, the impact of foreign trade on jobs can be analysed through an aggregate demand model, where employment E is a function of output Y and the employed workers per output unit L: E = LY (1). When obtaining the growth rates of expression 1, growth in employment (2) is a function of the increase in the coefficient of employment per unit of output and the growth of the output (Gibson, 2011). From the above, it can be deduced that as long as foreign trade generates output growth, employment increases. Thus, to determine the impact of trade on employment, it is necessary to analyse the effect of trade on economic growth and, subsequently, its effect on changes in employment.

International trade and its effect on employment dynamics

In this study, the estimate of the effect of trade on employment along the northern border of Mexico is founded on the theoretical approach of labor demand based on a Cobb-Douglas function developed by Greenaway et al. (1999): (3), where i is the industry, j is the state, t is time, Y is real output, K is the capital stock, L is units of labor utilized, α and β are factor share coefficients of production and labor, and Φ represents the change in the efficiency of these factors. When using the function to maximize profits, where the marginal productivities of the factors are equal the wage w and the capital cost c, the equation is solved and, by taking logarithms, the following expression is obtained:

ln L_ijt = θ₀ + θ₁ ln( w_ijτ/c ) + θ₂ lnY_ijt            (4).

where θ₀ = – (φlnA + αlnα – αlnβ)/(α + β), θ₁= – and θ₂ =

This expression indicates that the demand for employment is a function of the productive efficiency, which is given by technological change A and the costs of wages s and capital c. To integrate the effect of international trade, it is considered that changes in productive efficiency are linked to foreign trade. It is assumed that the effect of trade over time is positive; therefore, A_ijt = e^φ₀^t_iI^φ₁X^φ₂, where t is time, I imports and E exports, and it is assumed that the parameters φ are positive. This, employment is determined using the following equation:

ln L_ijt = θ₀ + δ₀T + δ₁ lnI_ijt+δ₂ lnX_ijt+lnθ₁( s_ijτ/c )+θ₂lnY_ijt         (5)

where θ₀ = – (αlnα + αlnβ)/(α + β), δ₀ = δθ₀, δ₁ = δθ₀₁, δθ₂ = δθ₂, δ =

Equation 5 indicates that the behaviour of employment is determined by economic activity, wages and the impacts of foreign trade, which reflect technological change in that equation. The empirical specification used to calculate the relationship between exports and employment assumes a short-term relationship whose estimation is based on a dynamic model that measures the impact of the adjustment process of the dependent variable on the explanatory variables, and it is assumed that these will have a positive dynamic effect on employment in the region of the northern border states.

Methodological aspects

There are different methodologies that have been used to analyse the effect of foreign trade on employment. One approach is based on factor content models, which seek to verify the theory of international trade in relation to the effects of foreign trade on the structure of work skills and, therefore, on employment in the manufacturing sector (Feenstra & Hanson, 1996). The growth accounting perspective considers the impact of foreign trade on employment when analysing changes in domestic demand, exports and productivity. Thus, the contribution of exports to employment growth depends on the proportion of exports in the total output, the growth rate of exports and the composition of labor-intensive exports (Wood, 1995).

Additionally, input-output matrices have been used, such as those developed by Feenstra and Sasahara (2018), Kien (2015), Ruiz Napoles (2017) and Sasahara (2019), among others. This methodology allows capturing both the direct employment generated by the exporters and the employment generated indirectly through the input-output intersectoral linkage. Some limitations of the method are related to the assumption that the distribution of imported inputs among all inputs is equal across all sectors. Other studies have used different econometric methods to estimate the relationship between exports and employment. In their study on the impact of exports on employment in Peruvian companies for the 2003-2010 period, Martincus et al. (2017) used an ordinary least squares model with instrumental variables. Feenstra et al. (2019) also used ordinary least squares with instrumental variables to analyse the effect of Chinese imports and U.S. exports on industrial jobs for the 1991-2007 period.

In this work, an approximation of the empirical model is carried out based on the following aspects: the difference in wage costs in the aggregate of workers in the industries, the presence of innovation shocks generated by foreign trade and the formation of expectations about wages. To obtain the variables of the model of foreign trade and employment at the national level, the following sources of information were consulted: the state gross domestic product was obtained from national accounts data published in the Economic Information Bank (BIE) of the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi), total state exports were obtained from the external sector data published by the BIE, total state imports from the US were obtained from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, and for wage information, the daily wages paid in the formal sector of the economy published by the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS, by its acronym in spanish) were taken. Regarding the model that relates employment with manufacturing exports for the northern border states, the value of production and wages were obtained from the Monthly Survey of the Manufacturing Industry (EMIM, by its acronym in spanish) published in the BIE, state manufacturing exports were acquired from external sector data published by the BIE, and the total state imports of the US were obtained from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics.

Two models were estimated: the first relates total employment with total trade, total economic activity and total wages of the states of the border region, and the second estimates the same variables for the manufacturing sector. The series used in the models to analyse the effects of foreign trade on employment along the northern border of Mexico are performed for two periods due to data availability. The first period is from 2013 to 2020 for total jobs in the region, and the second covers the 2007-2017 period for the analysis of manufacturing jobs. Due to the number of observations in the first series, the unit root and panel cointegration tests were estimated to determine whether the relationships between the variables could be considered long term. The results of the Breitung, Levin, Lin and Chu and Im, Pesaran and Chin tests suggest, in general terms, that the variables included in the model are stationary (Table 5).

Table 5. Unit root panel test
Variable	Breitung	Levin, Lin and Chu	Hadri	Im, Pesaran and Chin
Y	-2.19	-6.63	-2.08	-5.93
	0.01*	0.0*	0.98	0.0*
X/Y	-1.28	2.24	1.86	-3.39
	0.00*	0.09	0.31	0.00*
I/Y	-3.16	-3.58	0.41	-2.48
	0.00*	0.00*	0.36	0.01*
S	-3.94	-3.92	0.41	-1.64
	0.00*	0.00*	0.34	0.05**
Y = gross domestic product, X/Y = exports as a proportion of gdp, I/Y = imports as a proportion of gdp, S = average wages
* indicates rejection of the Levin, Lin and Chu (llc), Im, Pesaran and Chin and Breitung null hypothesis of nonstationarity, with a statistical significance of 1%, and of the Hadri hypothesis of stationarity
Source: own elaboration

With respect to the panel cointegration tests, the Pedroni and Hadri cointegration tests led to the rejection of the hypothesis of no cointegration in the period analysed (Table 6). That is, the results show that for GDP and total state export series, there is a possible long-term equilibrium, which does not necessarily imply the existence of common factors or trends.

Table 6. Panel cointegration tests
Pedroni cointegration test	Statistic	P value
Phillips-Perron t modified	0.72	0.24
Phillips-Perron t	-7.81	0
Dickey-Fuller t augmented	-7.25	0
Kao cointegration test
Dickey-Fuller t modified	-2.99	0.0001
Dickey-Fuller t modified unadjusted	-7.82	0
Dickey-Fuller t unadjusted	-6.67	0
Westerlund cointegration test
Variance ratio	-1.64	0.05
Source: own elaboration Pedroni, Kao and Westerlund: null hypothesis: No cointegration. Alt: cointegration

To perform a comparative analysis of the total GDP and manufacturing sector series, the same dynamic panel methodology was used with lags in the employment variable for estimating the two series and instrumental variables to control the possibility of endogeneity. The advantage of dynamic panel models with respect to static panel models is the inclusion of more information, which allows estimating the short-term and long-term effects of the explanatory variables on the dependent variable. If the dynamic panel includes the lag levels of the dependent variable as regressors, which violates strict exogeneity due to the association of the lagged dependent variable with the error, the Arellano-Bond model is used; this model takes the first differences of the regression to eliminate the individual effects, and the lags of the dependent variable are taken. Furthermore, the model uses the generalized method of instrumental moments and variables. The empirical equation that is established to estimate the impact of foreign trade on the employment of the border states of Mexico is defined as follows:

L_ij,t = α_i + δ₁ X_ij,t + δ₂ L_ij,t+ δ₃s_ij,t+θ₁Y_ij,t-1+σ_ij+ε_ij,t         (6)

where L_ijt = total employment of the economic sectors i for each of the northern border states j at time t, s_ijt = average real wage of industry i in state j at time t, Y_ijt = the real output,  α_i = industry-specific effects, Y_{ij, t-1} is the lagged dependent variable that is included as an explanatory variable and the error term that is divided by the idiosyncratic error ε_ij,t and the error that does not vary with time σ_ij. Endogeneity is generated by including the dynamic term represented by the lagged dependent variable.

A generalized model of moments was established using lags in the dependent variable and an instrumental variable to avoid serial correlation. To avoid inconsistency in the estimator of the dynamic panel model, due to the elimination of the individual effects of the error that generates a correlation between the lagged endogenous variable and the error term, a first differentiation was applied to the variables of the series (Nickell, 1981), and instrumental variables were used to eliminate the correlation between the idiosyncratic error and the lagged variable. Therefore, the model assumes that the lagged error term ε_ij - ε_ij -1 follows an MA(1) process and that the explanatory variables of the equation are strictly exogenous with respect to the error term.

Results of the estimations

To analyse the effect of foreign trade on employment in the northern Mexican border region, two dynamic panel models were established; the first includes the lags of the total employment variable as regressors, and the second includes the lags of manufacturing jobs in Mexico as regressors. Initially, the Arellano-Bond estimator test was performed for both models to determine if the dynamic panel model presented a serial correlation with the differentiated residuals.

Regarding the first model for total employment in the northern border region, the results do not reject the existence of a correlation in the first difference of the AR(1) errors; therefore, the model is considered adequate and does not show a serial correlation (Table 7). Additionally, to corroborate whether there are restrictions on the exogenous instruments of the dynamic panel estimation, the Sargan test was estimated. The p values of the Sargan statistic were 0.98 for one lag; therefore, the dynamic model shows instrumental variables that are exogenously valid. Regarding the second model, the Arellano-Bond and Sargan tests indicate that there is no correlation with or restrictions of the instrumental variables (Table 8).

Table 7. National employment: Arellano-Bond autocorrelation test and Sargan heteroscedasticity test
Lags	Autocorrelation test of the first difference in errors			Sargan test for overidentifying restrictions
	Order	Z	Prob > z	Chi	Prob > chi2
One lag	1	-0.87	0.038	0.01	0.98
Null hypothesis of the Arellano-Bond test: there is no correlation among the first-order differentiated errors.
Null hypothesis of the Sargan test: the overidentifying restrictions are valid.

Table 8. Manufacturing jobs: Arellano-Bond autocorrelation test and Sargan heteroscedasticity test
Lags	Autocorrelation test of the first difference in errors			Sargan test for overidentifying restrictions
	Order	Z	Prob > z	Chi	Prob > chi2
One lag	1	-2.42	0.04	22.95	0.92
Null hypothesis of the Arellano-Bond test: there is no correlation among first-order differentiated errors.
Null hypothesis of the Sargan test: the overidentifying restrictions are valid.

The dynamic panel model for the set of economic activities along the northern border was estimated based on a lag. The results show that the coefficients of GDP and import penetration were positive and statistically significant. The coefficient of the inputs of the formal sector was negative and statistically significant (Table 9). These results indicate that the shift in employment rate at the northern border is related to the economic activity dynamics and inversely related to wages, which corresponds to the theoretical approach of the model. However, the coefficient of export penetration was negative, a result that does not conform to the approach of trade openness as a driver of employment growth. The penetration of imports in the northern border region of Mexico has a positive and statistically significant impact on employment in the region. This result suggests that global value chains and intra-industry trade play driving roles in employment dynamics.

Table 9. Dynamic panel estimates. Dependent variable: total employment in border states, 2013-2020
66 observations, 6 groups
Variables	Lag 1 in instrumental variable1
C	-153.74
	70.11
LNY	5.32*
	2.16
LN(X/Y)	-13.08*
	5.51
LN(I/Y)	8.6
	3.61*
LNSF	-2.91**
	1.3
Number of instrumentals	57
Wald chi2(5) =	118.59
Prob > chi2	0
1 Instrumental variable T/Y (% of international trade in GDP) All variables were logarithmically transformed. * and ** indicate statistical significance at the 1% and 5% confidence levels, respectively. LNY = gross domestic product; LN(X/Y) = export penetration; LN(I/Y) = import penetration; LNSF = total wages

In the model for the manufacturing sector in the states of the northern border of Mexico, the coefficients of value of production and of penetration of exports and imports were positive and statistically significant (Table 10). The results suggest that foreign trade with the US plays an important role in the promotion of manufacturing jobs in the states along the northern Mexican border. In addition, the estimates highlight the importance of this sector in the economic dynamics of the northern border states. Finally, the coefficient of wages was negative and statistically significant; therefore, low wages, particularly those paid to workers in the maquiladora plants along the northern border, have been an incentive for job growth. This could imply a complicated scenario for achieving growth in manufacturing jobs coupled with a substantial increase in the income of workers in the manufacturing sector along the northern border of Mexico.

Table 10. Dynamic panel estimates. Dependent variable: total manufacturing jobs in border states, 2007-2017
66 observations, 6 groups
Variables	Lag 1 in instrumental variable1
C	0.24
	70.11
LNVP	0.05 *
	0.008
LNX	0.03*
	0.008
LNI	0.03*
	0.007
LNIF	-0.01*
	180
Number of instrumentals	180
Wald chi2(175) =	7 533.51
Prob > chi2	0
1 Instrumental variable T/GDP (% of international trade of GDP) All variables were logarithmically transformed. * Statistically significant at the 1% confidence level LNVP = manufacturing production value; LNX = manufacturing export penetration; LNI = manufacturing import penetration; LNIF = manufacturing wages

Conclusions

The establishment of the NAFTA and later the T-MEC and the geographic proximity to the US have significantly increased foreign investment and trade in Mexico. In particular, there is a greater trade integration of the states in the northern border region of Mexico. This has increased manufacturing activities and employment in the region. The states of Chihuahua and Baja California stand out and have been characterized as having faster employment growth in the region. Likewise, there is a notable share in both the penetration of exports and the penetration of imports in several states along the northern border. The models that relate employment to exports and imports suggest that greater trade integration with the United States would promote employment in the border region.

The analysis of the impact of foreign trade on employment has generally been approached from the perspective of classical theory and the new theory of international trade. From the traditional model of trade theory, the effect on employment will depend on the negative impact of imports that compete with domestic production, the growth of employment in the export sector, and the capital-labor ratio that characterizes this sector. The new theory of international trade suggests that the internationalization of production processes has generated a growing intra-industrial trade that allows imports and exports to have a positive effect on employment tied to international trade.

From the perspective of the aggregate demand approach, employment growth is a function of an increase in the employment coefficient per unit of output and the effect of foreign trade on output growth. Using an empirical dynamic panel model based on this approach, estimates were made in which the dependent variable is employment and is a function of trade penetration, state GDP, the value generated in the manufacturing industry and the average wages of workers in the northern border states. The results indicate that export penetration does not have an impact on total employment in the region. However, the output level and imports showed positive and significant coefficients. Likewise, wages in the region were negative, which conforms to the assumptions of the model. The results of the estimates for total employment in the region suggest that the effect of export penetration has not had a multiplier effect to boost the economic growth of border states as a whole. This result is probably related to the limited impact of export income on demand in the northern border region, which may be restricting the multiplier effect from exports.

However, the model that was estimated for the manufacturing sector in the northern border region indicated positive and significant coefficients for both export and import penetration. The above results suggest that the growth in manufacturing jobs is significantly linked to foreign trade in this sector in this border region. The importance of foreign trade in the dynamics of manufacturing jobs can be explained by the development of global supply chains and the fragmentation of production processes, which led to a significant increase in maquiladora and export manufacturing establishments in the northern border region of Mexico. In addition, the results of the estimations indicate that the coefficient of manufacturing wages was negative, suggesting that the low wages paid to workers in the maquiladora and export manufacturing industry could be a limitation for the manufacturing trade in generating multiplier effects in total economic activity and, therefore, for employment in other economic activities in the northern border region of Mexico.

References

Almonte, L., Rosales, R. A. & Carbajal-Suárez, Y. (2020). Spatial analysis of manufacturing employment in Mexico, 1984-2013. Desarrollo y Sociedad, (84), 91-129. https://doi.org/10.13043/dys.84.3

Estudios Fronterizos

Referencia bibliográfica

Almonte, L., Rosales, R. A. & Carbajal-Suárez, Y. (2020). Spatial analysis of manufacturing employment in Mexico, 1984-2013. Desarrollo y Sociedad, (84), 91-129. https://doi.org/10.13043/dys.84.3

Close

Angoa, I., Pérez-Mendoza, S. & Polèse, M. (2009). Los tres Méxicos: análisis de la distribución espacial del empleo en la industria y los servicios superiores, por tamaño urbano y por región. EURE (Santiago), 35(104), 121-144. http://dx.doi.org/10.4067/S0250-71612009000100006

Estudios Fronterizos

Referencia bibliográfica

Angoa, I., Pérez-Mendoza, S. & Polèse, M. (2009). Los tres Méxicos: análisis de la distribución espacial del empleo en la industria y los servicios superiores, por tamaño urbano y por región. EURE (Santiago), 35(104), 121-144. http://dx.doi.org/10.4067/S0250-71612009000100006

Close

Artuc, E., Lopez-Acevedo, G., Robertson, R. & Samaan, D. (2019). Exports to jobs: boosting the gains from trade in South Asia. World Bank Group/International Labour Organization. https://www.ilo.org/colombo/whatwedo/publications/WCMS_673459/lang--en/index.htm

Estudios Fronterizos

Referencia bibliográfica

Artuc, E., Lopez-Acevedo, G., Robertson, R. & Samaan, D. (2019). Exports to jobs: boosting the gains from trade in South Asia. World Bank Group/International Labour Organization. https://www.ilo.org/colombo/whatwedo/publications/WCMS_673459/lang--en/index.htm

Close

Blecker, R. A. (2014). The Mexican and US economies after twenty years of NAFTA. International Journal of Political Economy, 43(2), 5-26. https://www.jstor.org/stable/24696555

Estudios Fronterizos

Referencia bibliográfica

Blecker, R. A. (2014). The Mexican and US economies after twenty years of NAFTA. International Journal of Political Economy, 43(2), 5-26. https://www.jstor.org/stable/24696555

Close

Brülhart, M. (2000). Dynamics of intraindustry trade and labor‐market adjustment. Review of International Economics, 8(3), 420-435. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9396.00232

Estudios Fronterizos

Referencia bibliográfica

Brülhart, M. (2000). Dynamics of intraindustry trade and labor‐market adjustment. Review of International Economics, 8(3), 420-435. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9396.00232

Close

Cabral, M. & Silva, J. (2006). Intra-industry trade expansion and employment reallocation between sectors and occupations. Review of World Economics, 142(3), 496-520. https://www.jstor.org/stable/40441105

Estudios Fronterizos

Referencia bibliográfica

Cabral, M. & Silva, J. (2006). Intra-industry trade expansion and employment reallocation between sectors and occupations. Review of World Economics, 142(3), 496-520. https://www.jstor.org/stable/40441105

Close

Crozet, M. & Orefice, G. (2017, March). Trade and labor market: what do we know? CEPII-Policy Brief, (15). http://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/fr/publications/pb/abstract.asp?NoDoc=10063

Estudios Fronterizos

Referencia bibliográfica

Crozet, M. & Orefice, G. (2017, March). Trade and labor market: what do we know? CEPII-Policy Brief, (15). http://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/fr/publications/pb/abstract.asp?NoDoc=10063

Close

Feenstra, R. C. & Hanson, G. H. (1996). Globalization, outsourcing, and wage inequality (Working Paper 5424). National Bureau of Economic Research.

Estudios Fronterizos

Referencia bibliográfica

Feenstra, R. C. & Hanson, G. H. (1996). Globalization, outsourcing, and wage inequality (Working Paper 5424). National Bureau of Economic Research.

Close

Feenstra, R. C. & Hanson, G. H. (1997). Foreign direct investment and relative wages: evidence from Mexico’s maquiladoras. Journal of International Economics, 42(3-4), 371-393. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1996(96)01475-4

Estudios Fronterizos

Referencia bibliográfica

Feenstra, R. C. & Hanson, G. H. (1997). Foreign direct investment and relative wages: evidence from Mexico’s maquiladoras. Journal of International Economics, 42(3-4), 371-393. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1996(96)01475-4

Close

Feenstra, R. C., Ma, H. & Xu, Y. (2019). US exports and employment. Journal of International Economics, 120, 46-58. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2019.05.002

Estudios Fronterizos

Referencia bibliográfica

Feenstra, R. C., Ma, H. & Xu, Y. (2019). US exports and employment. Journal of International Economics, 120, 46-58. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2019.05.002

Close

Feenstra, R. C. & Sasahara, A. (2018). The ‘China shock’, exports and US employment: a global input-output analysis. Review of International Economics, 26(5), 1053-1083. https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12370

Estudios Fronterizos

Referencia bibliográfica

Feenstra, R. C. & Sasahara, A. (2018). The ‘China shock’, exports and US employment: a global input-output analysis. Review of International Economics, 26(5), 1053-1083. https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12370

Close

Gibson, B. (2011). Assessing the impact of trade on employment: methods of analysis. In M. Jansen, R. Peters, J. M. Salazar-Xirinachs (Eds.), Trade and employment. From myth to facts (pp. 61-124). International Labour Organization. http://ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---ed_emp/documents/genericdocument/wcms_166422.pdf

Estudios Fronterizos

Referencia bibliográfica

Gibson, B. (2011). Assessing the impact of trade on employment: methods of analysis. In M. Jansen, R. Peters, J. M. Salazar-Xirinachs (Eds.), Trade and employment. From myth to facts (pp. 61-124). International Labour Organization. http://ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---ed_emp/documents/genericdocument/wcms_166422.pdf

Close

Greenaway, D., Hine, R. & Milner, C. (1995). Vertical and horizontal intra-industry trade: a cross industry analysis for the United Kingdom. The Economic Journal, 105(433), 1505-1518. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2235113

Estudios Fronterizos

Referencia bibliográfica

Greenaway, D., Hine, R. & Milner, C. (1995). Vertical and horizontal intra-industry trade: a cross industry analysis for the United Kingdom. The Economic Journal, 105(433), 1505-1518. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2235113

Close

Greenaway, D., Hine, R. C. & Wright, P. (1999). An empirical assessment of the impact of trade on employment in the United Kingdom. European Journal of Political Economy, 15(3), 485-500. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0176-2680(99)00023-3

Estudios Fronterizos

Referencia bibliográfica

Greenaway, D., Hine, R. C. & Wright, P. (1999). An empirical assessment of the impact of trade on employment in the United Kingdom. European Journal of Political Economy, 15(3), 485-500. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0176-2680(99)00023-3

Close

Grijalva Monteverde, G. (2004). Generación de empleos en la frontera norte de México ¿Quiénes han aprovechado el TLC? Frontera Norte, 16(31), 33-67. https://doi.org/10.17428/rfn.v16i31.1312

Estudios Fronterizos

Referencia bibliográfica

Grijalva Monteverde, G. (2004). Generación de empleos en la frontera norte de México ¿Quiénes han aprovechado el TLC? Frontera Norte, 16(31), 33-67. https://doi.org/10.17428/rfn.v16i31.1312

Close

Jenkins, R. & Sen, K. (2006). International trade and manufacturing employment in the South: four country case studies. Oxford Development Studies, 34(3), 299-322. https://doi.org/10.1080/13600810600921802

Estudios Fronterizos

Referencia bibliográfica

Jenkins, R. & Sen, K. (2006). International trade and manufacturing employment in the South: four country case studies. Oxford Development Studies, 34(3), 299-322. https://doi.org/10.1080/13600810600921802

Close

Kien, N. T. (2015). Manufacturing exports and employment generation in Vietnam. Southeast Asian Journal of Economics, 3(2), 1-21. https://so05.tci-thaijo.org/index.php/saje/article/view/48819

Estudios Fronterizos

Referencia bibliográfica

Kien, N. T. (2015). Manufacturing exports and employment generation in Vietnam. Southeast Asian Journal of Economics, 3(2), 1-21. https://so05.tci-thaijo.org/index.php/saje/article/view/48819

Close

Kiyota, K. (2016). Exports and employment in China, Indonesia, Japan, and Korea. Asian Economic Papers, 15(1), 57-72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/ASEP_a_00402

Estudios Fronterizos

Referencia bibliográfica

Kiyota, K. (2016). Exports and employment in China, Indonesia, Japan, and Korea. Asian Economic Papers, 15(1), 57-72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/ASEP_a_00402

Close

Lovely, M. E. & Nelson, D. R. (2000). Marginal intraindustry trade and labor adjustment. Review of International Economics, 8(3), 436-447. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9396.00233

Estudios Fronterizos

Referencia bibliográfica

Lovely, M. E. & Nelson, D. R. (2000). Marginal intraindustry trade and labor adjustment. Review of International Economics, 8(3), 436-447. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9396.00233

Close

Lovely, M. E. & Nelson, D. R. (2002). Intra-industry trade as an indicator of labor market adjustment. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 138(2), 179-206. https://www.jstor.org/stable/40440896

Estudios Fronterizos

Referencia bibliográfica

Lovely, M. E. & Nelson, D. R. (2002). Intra-industry trade as an indicator of labor market adjustment. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 138(2), 179-206. https://www.jstor.org/stable/40440896

Close

Martincus, C. V., Carballo, J. & Cusolito, A. (2017). Roads, exports and employment: evidence from a developing country. Journal of Development Economics, 125, 21-39. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2016.10.002

Estudios Fronterizos

Referencia bibliográfica

Martincus, C. V., Carballo, J. & Cusolito, A. (2017). Roads, exports and employment: evidence from a developing country. Journal of Development Economics, 125, 21-39. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2016.10.002

Close

Mendoza, J. E. (2005). El TLCAN y la integración económica de la frontera México-Estados Unidos: situación presente y estrategias para el futuro. Foro Internacional, 45(3), 517-544. https://forointernacional.colmex.mx/index.php/fi/article/view/1757

Estudios Fronterizos

Referencia bibliográfica

Mendoza, J. E. (2005). El TLCAN y la integración económica de la frontera México-Estados Unidos: situación presente y estrategias para el futuro. Foro Internacional, 45(3), 517-544. https://forointernacional.colmex.mx/index.php/fi/article/view/1757

Close

Mendoza, J. E. (2009). Developing the U.S.-Mexico border region for a prosperous and secure relationship. Employment evolution and prospects on the Northern Mexico border (Binational Research Paper). James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy-Rice University. https://www.bakerinstitute.org/media/files/Research/03d07d50/LAI-pub-BorderSecMendoza-041509.pdf

Estudios Fronterizos

Referencia bibliográfica

Mendoza, J. E. (2009). Developing the U.S.-Mexico border region for a prosperous and secure relationship. Employment evolution and prospects on the Northern Mexico border (Binational Research Paper). James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy-Rice University. https://www.bakerinstitute.org/media/files/Research/03d07d50/LAI-pub-BorderSecMendoza-041509.pdf

Close

Mendoza, J. E. (2021). Perspectives of the US-Mexico trade under the USMCA. Norteamérica, revista académica del CISAN-UNAM, 16(2). https://doi.org/10.22201/cisan.24487228e.2021.2.478

Estudios Fronterizos

Referencia bibliográfica

Mendoza, J. E. (2021). Perspectives of the US-Mexico trade under the USMCA. Norteamérica, revista académica del CISAN-UNAM, 16(2). https://doi.org/10.22201/cisan.24487228e.2021.2.478

Close

Nickell, S. (1981). Biases in dynamic models with fixed effects. Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society, 49(6), 1417-1426. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1911408

Estudios Fronterizos

Referencia bibliográfica

Nickell, S. (1981). Biases in dynamic models with fixed effects. Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society, 49(6), 1417-1426. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1911408

Close

Ruiz Nápoles, P. (2017). Neoliberal reforms and NAFTA in Mexico. Economía UNAM, 14(41), 75-89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eunam.2017.06.004

Estudios Fronterizos

Referencia bibliográfica

Ruiz Nápoles, P. (2017). Neoliberal reforms and NAFTA in Mexico. Economía UNAM, 14(41), 75-89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eunam.2017.06.004

Close

Sasahara, A. (2019). Explaining the employment effect of exports: value-added content matters. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 52, 1-21. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jjie.2019.02.004

Estudios Fronterizos

Referencia bibliográfica

Sasahara, A. (2019). Explaining the employment effect of exports: value-added content matters. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 52, 1-21. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jjie.2019.02.004

Close

Saucedo, E., Ozuna, T. & Zamora, H. (2020). The effect of FDI on low and high-skilled employment and wages in Mexico: a study for the manufacture and service sectors. Journal for Labour Market Research, 54, Article 9. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12651-020-00273-x

Estudios Fronterizos

Referencia bibliográfica

Saucedo, E., Ozuna, T. & Zamora, H. (2020). The effect of FDI on low and high-skilled employment and wages in Mexico: a study for the manufacture and service sectors. Journal for Labour Market Research, 54, Article 9. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12651-020-00273-x

Close

Tavares Luna, R. & Varela Llamas, R. (2019). La demanda de empleo en la industria manufacturera de México. Contaduría y Administración, 64(1), 1-23. http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0186-10422019000100006

Estudios Fronterizos

Referencia bibliográfica

Tavares Luna, R. & Varela Llamas, R. (2019). La demanda de empleo en la industria manufacturera de México. Contaduría y Administración, 64(1), 1-23. http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0186-10422019000100006

Close

Türkcan, K. & Ates, A. (2011). Vertical intra‐industry trade and fragmentation: an empirical examination of the US auto‐parts industry. The World Economy, 34(1), 154-172. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2010.01316.x

Estudios Fronterizos

Referencia bibliográfica

Türkcan, K. & Ates, A. (2011). Vertical intra‐industry trade and fragmentation: an empirical examination of the US auto‐parts industry. The World Economy, 34(1), 154-172. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2010.01316.x

Close

Varela Llamas, R. & Retamoza Yocupicio, R. R. (2020). Exportaciones, actividad económica y mercado laboral en México, 2005-2019. Economía, Sociedad y Territorio, 20(63), 537-561. https://doi.org/10.22136/est20201594

Estudios Fronterizos

Referencia bibliográfica

Varela Llamas, R. & Retamoza Yocupicio, R. R. (2020). Exportaciones, actividad económica y mercado laboral en México, 2005-2019. Economía, Sociedad y Territorio, 20(63), 537-561. https://doi.org/10.22136/est20201594

Close

Villanueva, L. (2017). Are manufacturing workers benefiting from trade? The case of Mexico’s manufacturing sector. International Journal of Development Issues, 16(1), 25-42. https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/IJDI-08-2016-0048/full/html

Estudios Fronterizos

Referencia bibliográfica

Villanueva, L. (2017). Are manufacturing workers benefiting from trade? The case of Mexico’s manufacturing sector. International Journal of Development Issues, 16(1), 25-42. https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/IJDI-08-2016-0048/full/html

Close

Villarreal, M. & Fergusson, I. F. (2017). The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Congressional Research Service. https://ecommons.cornell.edu/xmlui/bitstream/handle/1813/78581/CRS_NAFTA_0517.pdf?sequence=1

Estudios Fronterizos

Referencia bibliográfica

Villarreal, M. & Fergusson, I. F. (2017). The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Congressional Research Service. https://ecommons.cornell.edu/xmlui/bitstream/handle/1813/78581/CRS_NAFTA_0517.pdf?sequence=1

Close

Wood, A. (1995). North-South trade, employment, and inequality: changing fortunes in a skill-driven world. Oxford University Press.

Estudios Fronterizos

Referencia bibliográfica

Wood, A. (1995). North-South trade, employment, and inequality: changing fortunes in a skill-driven world. Oxford University Press.

Close

Jorge Eduardo Mendoza
Mexican. PhD in economics from Utah University. Professor-researcher of El Colegio de la Frontera Norte, Departamento de Estudios Económicos. Member of Sistema Nacional de Investigadores level 3 since 2010. Research lines: regional economics, Mexico-United States integration, labor markets. Recent publication: Mendoza-Cota, J. E. (2021). Perspectives of the US-Mexico trade under the usmca. Norteamérica, 16(2). https://doi.org/10.22201/cisan.24487228e.2021.2.478

Víctor Hugo Torres-Preciado
Mexican. PhD in economic sciences from Universidad Autónoma de Baja California and master in applied economics from El Colef. Professor-researcher at Facultad de Economía, Universidad de Colima. Member of Sistema Nacional de Investigadores level 2. Research lines: criminality, economic growth, technologic innovation and economic aspects of international migration by implementing the methods of quantitative economics with a spatial approach. Recent publication: Torres Preciado, V. H., & Muriel Torrero, N. O. (2021). Economic and crime cycles synchronization across states in Mexico: a dynamic factor model approach. Regional Statistics, 11(4), 1-25. https://dx.doi.org/10.15196/RS110401

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Atribución 4.0 Internacional.